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Saturday, June 20, 2015

Brazilian Economic Depression


THE IMMINENT BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC DEPRESSION
It is all the way clear that Brazilian economy faces a serious expansion of recession toward deep stagnation. Is the worse yet to come? Unfortunately, there is a great risk of imminent economic depression in Brazil, as lack of government credibility, discrepancy between the real data and the artificial economy which have seen as misconduct of public accounts, the erroneous role of public policies, drops in economic activity (as consumers spend less, when corporations postpone investments and when governments adopt austerity programs), decline of tariff revenue, national budget deficits, the fiscal deficits, restrictive increase of tax schedules, serious balance of payments problems, Real devaluations, the withdrawal of private capital from financial markets, by restrictive monetary and fiscal policies (inflationary fiscal policy based on raising taxes on consumption and reducing public spending with the aim of staying in the good graces of financial capital and the rating agencies), the collapse of the investment banks, high unemployment, the of social inequalities and poverty will deepen from now on. In short, the crisis does not come from outside. It is a major problem of internal misconception and because economy relies very heavily on the corrupted state sector. The route from deep stagnation to depression has been pavimented for 13 years, as the government follows the same foolish route for too long, and it has become an unsustainable outrageous economic point of view when economic conditions change, thus launching the entire economy into a devastating process of depression. That's really a true recipe to produce an economic depression. But there is more! Along with the major internal problem, a large drop in international prices, as well as a sudden stop to international capital flows, a Chinese economic slowdown, and the imminent US tax rise will lead to the Brazilian economic depression ahead.